📃 Jul 04, 2026 – EUROPE Cryptocurrency Market 8h Daily Trend Forecast

Crypto Market Analysis & Trend: Trending Up

The crypto market is trending up as of July 4, 2026, with prices and market capitalization climbing despite lingering extreme fear. Bitcoin hit $62,548.00, up 1.32%, pushing its market cap to $1.25 trillion with a 1.87% gain. Ethereum also showed strength, trading at $1,717.67 on July 3, a 5.74% price jump, and its capitalization rose 3.48% to $211.99 billion by July 4. These moves follow positive news, including Bitcoin breaking out of a bullish structure and Fidelity’s FBTC leading a $222 million Bitcoin ETF rebound after a 10-day outflow.

Even with these price and capitalization gains, the Fear and Greed Index is stuck in ‘extreme fear,’ registering between 21pt and 26pt across sources on July 4. This shows a clear disconnect between market performance and investor sentiment. Prices are climbing, but the market’s emotional state hasn’t caught up, pointing to a cautious recovery, not a euphoric rally. Exchange volumes also dropped sharply on July 4; Binance volume fell 12.93% to $113,742, and Coinbase volume plunged 34.72% to $17,051. This lower trading activity alongside rising prices could mean less speculative pressure, or it might signal that bigger, less frequent transactions are driving current gains.

Bitcoin’s mining sector shows stable difficulty at 133.87T and a consistent 3.13 BTC reward. The hash rate, however, jumped 14.41% to 998.21B GB on July 4, after fluctuating, including a -22.59% drop on June 29. This boost in network computational power offers foundational strength, even as exchange trading volumes fall. Fundamental indicators like hash rate and market capitalization are strengthening, but short-term trading enthusiasm, seen in lower exchange volumes, is quiet. The upward trend for the next 8 hours has moderate confidence, supported by price momentum and news, but held back by persistent ‘extreme fear’ and declining exchange volumes. These mixed signals mean the general direction is positive, but volatility is still a factor.

Bitcoin address data from June 29 shows a vast, stable network. Total addresses topped 1.5 billion, with active addresses at 636,322, up 0.44%. Addresses holding various amounts of Bitcoin, from tiny fractions to over 100,000 BTC, stayed largely stable with minimal changes. This steady address activity, paired with positive price action, points to consistent network use without panic selling or mass accumulation from smaller holders. Larger addresses, like the 1,943 holding over 1,000 BTC, also saw minor variations, suggesting big players are holding calm. This on-chain stability supports the current price appreciation, indicating it’s driven by a consistent holder base, not just speculative fervor.

What is important

Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are seeing notable price and market cap increases. Bitcoin’s price climbed to $62,548.00 on July 4, with its market cap surpassing $1.25 trillion, boosted by significant ETF inflows, including Fidelity’s $222 million rebound.

Even with these positive financial signals, the market’s Fear and Greed Index holds steady in ‘extreme fear,’ hovering around 22-26pt. This gap between price action and investor sentiment points to a cautious recovery, with gains happening without broad confidence returning. Exchange trading volumes also dropped substantially across platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and OKX on July 4, signaling less short-term trading.

Recent news points to bullish signals for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with predictions of rallies to $65K and $2K. XRP is also drawing attention with potential for big earnings and a 14% rally signal, though it’s also seeing reports of deep holder losses. The Clarity Act’s law enforcement support is a positive regulatory step, which could boost adoption and stability for digital assets.

Top 5 – Latest Headlines & Cryptocurrency News

👍 Bitcoin price eyes $65K after ETF inflows snap 10-day losing streak
– Bitcoin´s price is showing signs of recovery, aiming for the $65,000 mark. This optimism follows a 10-day losing streak, with recent ETF inflows suggesting renewed investor interest. The market is reacting positively to these developments, indicating a potential upward trend for the cryptocurrency.

👍 Fidelity´s FBTC Leads $222 Million Bitcoin ETF Rebound After 10 Days of Outflows
– Fidelity´s FBTC ETF experienced a significant rebound, attracting $222 million in inflows after a ten-day period of outflows. This surge indicates renewed investor interest and confidence in Bitcoin ETFs, marking a positive turn for the asset class following a recent downturn. The recovery suggests a potential stabilization or upward trend in the market.

👍 Top 3 Reasons Ethereum Price Could Rally to $2K By Next Week
– Ethereum´s price is poised for a potential rally to $2,000 by next week, driven by three key factors. These include a surge in whale accumulation, a significant increase in staking activity, and the upcoming Dencun upgrade. These developments suggest strong underlying demand and positive sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency.

👍 XRP Buy Signal Returns as Bulls Eye $1.65 Breakout and $7.50 Target This Week
– XRP has shown a buy signal, indicating potential bullish momentum. Analysts suggest a breakout above $1.65 could lead to a target of $7.50 this week. This positive outlook is driven by technical indicators and market sentiment, suggesting a favorable period for XRP investors.

👎 XRP Holder Losses Hit Deepest Level in 12 Years: Buy Signal or Trap?
– XRP holders are experiencing significant losses, with some reporting the deepest losses since the cryptocurrency´s inception. This downturn is attributed to various factors, including market volatility and regulatory uncertainties. The article highlights the financial distress faced by many investors in XRP.

Factors Driving the Growth – Market Sentiment

Keyword analysis shows mixed but mostly positive sentiment in recent news. ‘Cryptocurrency’ and ‘bitcoin’ appear often in both positive (23 and 18 times) and negative (9 and 6 times) contexts, showing their central role in market discussions. ‘XRP’ is also prominent, with 7 positive mentions for potential rallies and ETF inflows, but 10 negative mentions tied to ‘losses’ and ‘holders,’ highlighting its current volatility and investor concerns. Positive terms like ‘digital assets’ (10), ‘ethereum’ (6), and ‘rally’ (6) reflect a general optimistic outlook, backed by ‘grass airdrop’ (5) and ‘clarity act’ (4). On the negative side, ‘losses’ (5), ‘rbi’ (5), and ‘investors’ (3) point to financial distress and regulatory scrutiny, meaning some participants face challenges even as the market gains.

Positive Terms – Sentiment Analysis

Negative Terms – Sentiment Analysis

Crypto Investor Fear & Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index shows persistent ‘extreme fear’ in the crypto market, with values consistently below 25pt across multiple sources on July 4, 2026. Alternative.me, BitcoinMagazinePro.com, BitDegree.org, and Milkroad.com all reported the index at 22pt on July 4, a slight 1pt increase from July 3’s 21pt. Coinstats.app showed slightly higher readings, 25pt and 26pt on July 4, but these still land in ‘extreme fear’ (0-24pt) or just at the ‘fear’ threshold (25-49pt). The index has edged up slightly over the past few days, from 19pt on July 2 to 22pt on July 4, according to several sources. This gradual rise hints at a very slight easing of extreme fear, but market sentiment stays overwhelmingly cautious despite recent price upticks.

Bitcoin: Active Addresses

Bitcoin address data for June 29, 2026, reveals a vast, largely stable network. Bitaps.com recorded over 1.52 billion total addresses at 20:00, with negligible 0.00% hourly changes. Btc.com reported 636,322 active Bitcoin addresses at 20:00, up 0.44% from the prior hour. Addresses holding various Bitcoin amounts, from tiny fractions to over 100,000 BTC, showed minimal changes, mostly 0.00% or slight fractions. For example, addresses with over 1 BTC totaled 828,693, showing no variation at 20:00, while those with over 10 BTC saw a -0.04% change to 130,285. This overall stability in address counts and their minor fluctuations points to a consistent, rather than rapidly shifting, on-chain landscape for Bitcoin.

Crypto Assets Prices

Cryptocurrency prices on July 4, 2026, show Bitcoin trending positive, hitting $62,548.00, up 1.32%, with a 1.57% 24-hour variation. Its 24-hour volatility sat at 2.39%. Ethereum, on July 3, was priced at $1,717.67, seeing a substantial 5.74% price variation and a 5.71% 24-hour variation, with higher 24-hour volatility of 6.46%. Binance Coin on July 3 traded at $561.71, with a 2.07% price variation and a 1.97% 24-hour variation, showing 3.09% 24-hour volatility. Ethereum’s 24-hour volatility was the highest of the three, suggesting more pronounced price swings. These major cryptocurrencies generally show upward price momentum in the recent 24-hour period.

Cryptocurrency Capitalization and Volume

Major cryptocurrency market caps generally grew on July 4, 2026, but trading volumes fell. Bitcoin’s capitalization rose 1.87% to $1,254,064,165,795, while its volume dropped 35.38% to $25,988,482,081. Ethereum’s capitalization increased 3.48% to $211,996,179,560, with volume down 27.52% to $9,470,639,862. Ripple saw the biggest cap increase at 4.34%, hitting $70,551,139,671, though its volume slipped 3.60%. Binance Coin’s cap grew 2.74% to $77,272,721,633, but its volume declined 27.43%. Tether, a stablecoin, held a stable cap with a 0.02% increase to $184,113,983,466, yet its volume also decreased 26.18%. This pattern of rising capitalizations and falling volumes across most major assets suggests price appreciation is happening with less active trading, possibly indicating a shift towards holding rather than high-frequency transactions.

Cryptocurrency Exchanges Volume and Variation

Exchange volumes on July 4, 2026, show a significant slowdown in trading across major platforms. Binance, the largest exchange, saw its volume drop 12.93% to $113,742. Other prominent exchanges experienced even steeper declines: Coinbase’s volume fell 34.72% to $17,051, OKX by 45.01% to $22,346, and Gate.io by 35.43% to $20,225. Bybit’s volume slipped 31.43% to $22,611, while Crypto.com’s decreased 33.56% to $11,706. Smaller exchanges like Binance US and Bitfinex also recorded substantial drops of 37.80% and 25.51%. This widespread reduction in trading, following higher volumes on July 2 and 3, points to a market-wide decrease in liquidity and transactional engagement, even with upward price movements for several cryptocurrencies.

Mining – Blockchain Technology

Bitcoin mining indicators show stable difficulty and block rewards, but fluctuating hash rates. Mining difficulty held constant at 133.87T from July 4 back to June 28, meaning no recent adjustments to the computational challenge. The block reward also stayed steady at 3.13 BTC. Mined blocks consistently rose, hitting 956.57K on July 4, with minor daily variations of 0.01% to 0.02%. The hash rate, representing the network’s computational power, saw significant daily swings. On July 4, it jumped 14.41% to 998.21B GB, rebounding from an 8.95% drop on July 3. Looking back, it surged 17.50% on July 1 and fell -22.59% on June 29, showing its dynamic nature despite stable difficulty.

Taking stock

The crypto market is navigating a complex landscape: positive price action and strengthening fundamentals meet persistent investor caution and declining trading volumes. Bitcoin’s price surged to $62,548.00, and its market cap topped $1.25 trillion on July 4. This is significant, especially with recent $222 million ETF inflows ending a 10-day outflow streak. Institutional interest and larger capital movements appear to be driving this upward momentum.

Even with these gains, the Fear and Greed Index consistently shows ‘extreme fear’ at around 22-26pt. This means retail investor sentiment hasn’t fully embraced recent positive price moves, likely due to past volatility or broader economic uncertainties. The widespread drop in exchange volumes across platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and OKX backs this cautious stance, as less active trading could mean fewer speculative participants are driving the market.

On-chain data, like the stable number of Bitcoin addresses and rising hash rate, offers a more fundamental view of market health. The network’s computational power climbed 14.41% on July 4, suggesting robust operational strength. While prices are rising, the market isn’t showing typical signs of widespread speculative euphoria. Instead, it looks like a more measured ascent, possibly driven by larger players and underlying network resilience, not broad retail excitement.

So What

For anyone watching the crypto market today, the data shows resilience mixed with caution. Bitcoin’s price at $62,548.00 and Ethereum’s at $1,717.67, along with their growing market caps, signal potential for continued upward movement. This suggests the market is finding support, possibly from institutional inflows like Fidelity’s $222 million Bitcoin ETF rebound.

However, the persistent ‘extreme fear’ sentiment, with the index around 22-26pt, means much of the market stays hesitant. This isn’t a market driven by widespread enthusiasm, but by more targeted buying. The notable drop in exchange volumes, like Binance’s 12.93% decrease and Coinbase’s 34.72% decrease on July 4, shows subdued daily trading. This could mean current price appreciation is less about frenetic retail trading and more about longer-term positioning.

Investors should know that while prices are rising, market sentiment remains fragile. Positive news for XRP, including potential rallies to $1.65 and $7.50, offers specific opportunities, but balance this with reports of XRP holder losses. The market shows strength in key assets, but with underlying apprehension, making careful observation of price action and sentiment indicators crucial.

What next?

Over the next 8 hours, watch Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $62,548.00 and push for the $65,000 target mentioned in recent news, especially after ETF inflows ended its 10-day losing streak. A decisive move past this level could signal more bullish momentum.

Ethereum’s performance is also key, especially its potential to rally toward $2,000, as rare bullish signals and whale accumulation suggest. Watching if its 24-hour volatility, which hit 6.46% on July 3, moderates or intensifies will show its short-term stability.

Also, watch for any shifts in the Fear and Greed Index. While it’s currently in ‘extreme fear’ (22-26pt), a sustained move toward ‘fear’ or ‘greed’ zones would signal broader market sentiment improvement. Continued low exchange volumes, like Bitcoin’s 35.38% drop on July 4, could mean further price increases come from larger, less frequent transactions, not widespread retail participation. Volume is a crucial indicator to confirm price moves.

Disclaimer – Informational Content, Not Investment Advice

Content provided herein is solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as a recommendation, endorsement, or suggestion to engage in any form of investment activity. The information presented in this post is not intended to serve as financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.

About the Author: CryptoTrends Team

With over five years of diving deep into cryptocurrencies and blockchain, we’ve cemented our position as experts in the digital currency realm. Our team has not only contributed to a multitude of pioneering blockchain projects but has also enlightened thousands with our incisive articles CryptoTrends. Always at the cutting edge of crypto trends, we proudly collaborate with CryptoBotStation, ensuring our readers stay one step ahead in this dynamic space.