📃 Oct 05, 2026 – ASIA Cryptocurrency Market 8h Daily Trend Forecast

Crypto Market Analysis & Trend: Neutral/Trending Up

Bitcoin’s price climbed 2.25% to $86,688.01 by 23:30:00 on October 4th, 2026. Ethereum also moved higher, rising 0.72% to $2,688.00 on October 3rd, while Binance Coin gained 2.42% to $787.09 that same day. These price gains come as the Fear and Greed Index shows ‘Greed’ sentiment, ranging from 65pt to 70pt on October 4th across sources like Alternative.me and Coinstats.app. This suggests investors remain optimistic, even with some shifts in market activity.

Trading volumes, however, fell sharply across major cryptocurrencies and exchanges. Bitcoin’s 24-hour volume on October 4th plunged 67.89% to $14.63 billion, coming after a 37.19% increase on October 3rd. Ethereum’s volume saw an even steeper drop of 72.88% to $5.14 billion, following a 38.04% rise the day before. This pattern of significant volume contraction after expansion also shows up in Binance Coin and Ripple, suggesting immediate trading fervor is cooling even as prices hold or advance. The market looks to be consolidating, with less liquidity moving through.

Exchange data confirms this trend, with substantial volume reductions across nearly all major platforms on October 4th. Binance’s volume dropped 66.27% to $58,037, Coinbase’s fell 68.43% to $9,091, and Kraken’s plunged 77.97% to $5,818. These widespread decreases in exchange volumes point to a broad pullback in trading participation. That could mean higher price volatility in the short term if large orders hit the market. Bitcoin’s mining difficulty held largely stable at 132.72T on October 4th, with just a -0.03% variation, but the hash rate decreased 5.00% to 885.11B GB, suggesting some adjustments in mining operations.

Over the next 8 hours, the market looks ‘Neutral/Trending Up’, mostly driven by positive price momentum and ‘Greed’ sentiment. We’re moderately confident in this outlook. While prices are up, the sharp drop in trading volumes across the board adds uncertainty. Less liquidity can make markets more sensitive to sudden price swings, up or down, based on fewer large trades. Bitcoin’s total address count stayed stable at 1,550,441,491 by 23:00:00 on October 4th, suggesting underlying network health. But that doesn’t directly offset immediate trading volume concerns. We’re watching a market that’s technically gaining in price but with less conviction from active traders, which calls for caution.

What is important

The crypto market is seeing positive price momentum, with Bitcoin gaining on October 4th, 2026, and Ethereum and Binance Coin gaining on October 3rd. This upward move has the backing of a ‘Greed’ sentiment, with the Fear and Greed Index showing values from 65pt to 70pt.

A significant drop in trading volumes across major cryptocurrencies and exchanges, however, points to a potential consolidation. Bitcoin’s volume fell 67.89%, and Ethereum’s dropped 72.88% on October 4th, signaling less active market participation.

Ethereum ETFs are outperforming Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 inflows, and the SEC approved a 3x daily futures Bitcoin ETF, with analysts projecting substantial Bitcoin price targets. On the flip side, XRP ETFs are underwater, and Japan sanctioned the crypto exchange Garantex. This mix shows both positive developments and regulatory or performance challenges.

Top 5 – Latest Headlines & Cryptocurrency News

👍 Ethereum ETFs Outpace Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 Inflows
– Ethereum ETFs are demonstrating superior performance compared to Bitcoin ETFs in 2026, attracting significantly higher inflows. This trend suggests a growing investor interest and confidence in Ethereum´s market potential, potentially reshaping the landscape of cryptocurrency investment vehicles.

👎 XRP ETFs Put In $1.79 Billion but Hold $1.66 Billion. Why Are They the Only Major Crypto ETFs Underwater?
– XRP ETFs have seen significant inflows of $1.79 billion but are currently holding $1.66 billion, indicating they are underwater. This makes them the only major crypto ETFs in this position, suggesting potential underperformance or market challenges specific to XRP. Investors may be experiencing losses on these holdings.

👍 Bitcoin Price Target: Fidelity Analyst Sees $300K by 2029
– Fidelity analyst, Jurrien Timmer, suggests Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2026. He bases this projection on Bitcoin´s adoption curve, comparing it to early internet adoption. Timmer believes Bitcoin is in a ´digital gold´ phase, attracting institutional investors and potentially leading to significant price appreciation.

👍 SEC Approves Listing of Bitcoin ETF Targeting 3x Daily Futures Moves
– The SEC has approved the listing of a Bitcoin ETF that aims to track 3x daily futures moves. This development signifies a significant step for Bitcoin´s integration into traditional finance, potentially increasing accessibility and trading volume for investors interested in leveraged Bitcoin exposure.

👎 Japan adds Garantex to list of Russia sanctions over Ukraine war
– Japan has added Garantex, a cryptocurrency exchange, to its list of sanctions against Russia due to the ongoing Ukraine war. This move aims to disrupt Russia´s ability to finance its military operations by targeting entities involved in cryptocurrency transactions. The sanctions reflect Japan´s commitment to international pressure against Russia´s actions.

Factors Driving the Growth – Market Sentiment

News sentiment shows a strong positive focus on “bitcoin,” appearing 11 times. “Bitcoin ETFs” (3 times) and “Ethereum ETFs” (3 times) also get specific mentions, pointing to significant interest in these investment vehicles. “Cardano” and “Ripple” emerge as positive keywords, each mentioned 3 and 2 times respectively, suggesting favorable developments around these projects like Cardano’s AI agent integration and XRP Asia’s launch with Ripple backing. The term “cryptocurrency” itself appears in both positive (3 times) and negative (6 times) contexts, reflecting a mixed perception of the broader market. Negative sentiment clusters around “sanctions” (3 times) and “XRP ETFs” (3 times), with “Garantex” (2 times) specifically linked to Japan’s sanctions. The underperformance of XRP ETFs, highlighted by their underwater status, is a clear negative theme.

Positive Terms – Sentiment Analysis

Negative Terms – Sentiment Analysis

Crypto Investor Fear & Greed Index

The crypto market has held a ‘Greed’ sentiment for the past few days, with indicators consistently above 50pt. On October 4th, 2026, the Fear and Greed Index hit 65pt from Alternative.me and Milkroad.com, and 70pt from Coinstats.app at 22:30:00. This follows 67pt on October 3rd from Alternative.me, BitDegree.org, and Milkroad.com, and 72pt on October 2nd from the same sources. While the index has seen minor swings, like a -2pt variation on October 4th from Alternative.me, it stays firmly in ‘Greed’ territory (50-74pt). This sustained level suggests investors are generally optimistic about market prospects, even with small daily pullbacks.

Bitcoin: Active Addresses

Bitcoin address activity shows total addresses steadily increasing, hitting 1,550,441,491 by 23:00:00 on October 4th, 2026, according to bitaps.com. Addresses with zero balance also grew to 1,493,385,079 at the same time, holding a 0.00% variation throughout the day. The number of addresses with various Bitcoin amounts, such as those holding over 0.000001 BTC (5,004,621) or over 0.001 BTC (12,150,137), showed minimal daily variations, mostly 0.00% or 0.01%. Addresses with larger balances, like those holding over 10 BTC (129,678) or over 100 BTC (18,271), also saw very slight fluctuations, typically less than 0.05%. Data for ‘Bitcoin Active Addresses’ from btc.com wasn’t available for recent dates, showing 0 addresses for August 8th, 2026.

Crypto Assets Prices

Bitcoin’s price climbed 2.25% to $86,688.01 by 23:30:00 on October 4th, 2026, with its 24-hour variation at 2.28%. This follows a more modest 0.20% gain on October 3rd. Ethereum also recorded a gain, rising 0.72% to $2,688.00 on October 3rd, with a 0.73% 24-hour variation. Binance Coin showed stronger performance, up 2.42% to $787.09 on October 3rd, with a 2.45% 24-hour variation. Bitcoin’s volatility stood at 2.46% on October 4th, while Ethereum’s 24-hour volatility was 0.91% on October 3rd, and Binance Coin’s was 3.66% on October 3rd. These figures point to a general upward trend in prices, with varying short-term volatility across major cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrency Capitalization and Volume

Market capitalization for major cryptocurrencies showed a mixed but generally stable picture on October 4th, 2026. Bitcoin’s capitalization rose 0.29% to $1,702,949,769,153, while its 24-hour trading volume sharply dropped 67.89% to $14,639,090,627. Ethereum’s capitalization climbed 0.71% to $328,125,265,498, but its volume fell 72.88% to $5,142,108,228. Binance Coin saw a 2.50% increase in capitalization to $104,830,897,700, with its volume down 26.02%. Ripple’s capitalization had a slight 0.11% rise to $93,782,603,866, while its volume plunged 70.74%. Tether, a stablecoin, held a stable capitalization with a 0.02% increase to $184,063,347,352, and its volume decreased 63.74%. The trend points to modest capitalization gains for most assets, but with significantly reduced trading volumes across the board.

Cryptocurrency Exchanges Volume and Variation

Trading volumes across major crypto exchanges saw substantial declines on October 4th, 2026. Binance, the largest exchange by volume, dropped 66.27%, settling at $58,037. Coinbase’s volume fell 68.43% to $9,091, while Kraken’s plunged 77.97% to $5,818. Other significant exchanges like Bybit, Gate.io, and OKX also reported considerable reductions: Bybit’s volume was down 64.57% to $9,389, Gate.io’s down 64.50% to $9,913, and OKX’s down 62.88% to $15,086. Even smaller platforms like Binance US and Bitfinex recorded steep declines of 73.63% and 92.78% respectively. This widespread contraction in trading activity across nearly all monitored exchanges points to a broad reduction in market participation.

Mining – Blockchain Technology

Bitcoin mining indicators show a largely stable environment, though with some hash rate adjustments. On October 4th, 2026, mining difficulty stood at 132.72T, a minor -0.03% variation from the previous day’s 132.76T. The number of mined blocks increased slightly by 0.01% to 969.78K. The reward in BTC per block held constant at 3.13, showing no variation. The network’s hash rate, which represents computational power, decreased 5.00% to 885.11B GB on October 4th, following a 3.76% increase on October 3rd. This points to a slight reduction in the aggregate mining power dedicated to the Bitcoin network, even as difficulty stays largely unchanged.

Taking stock

The crypto market is seeing positive price movements and a ‘Greed’ sentiment, but also a significant drop in trading activity. Bitcoin’s price rose to $86,688.01 on October 4th, 2026, alongside gains in Ethereum and Binance Coin on October 3rd, reflecting continued investor confidence. The Fear and Greed Index consistently shows ‘Greed’ levels, supporting this.

The sharp decline in trading volumes across major cryptocurrencies and exchanges, however, adds a layer of caution. Bitcoin’s volume fell 67.89% and Ethereum’s dropped 72.88% on October 4th, suggesting recent price appreciation might not have robust trading liquidity behind it. This divergence between price and volume means that while market sentiment is positive, active participation could be waning, potentially making the market more vulnerable to volatility.

News flow is mixed: Ethereum ETFs are attracting significant inflows in 2026, and the SEC approved a 3x Bitcoin ETF. On the other hand, XRP ETFs are underperforming, and Japan sanctioned a crypto exchange. These highlight ongoing challenges related to market performance and regulatory scrutiny. The market seems to be in a state of cautious optimism, where positive sentiment is tempered by reduced trading and specific concerns.

So What

For observers, today’s crypto market shows price appreciation with less active trading. The ‘Greed’ sentiment, with the Fear and Greed Index around 65-70pt on October 4th, means many investors feel optimistic. This could encourage further buying, but the substantial drop in trading volumes across major assets like Bitcoin (-67.89%) and Ethereum (-72.88%) means price movements might be more pronounced on lower liquidity.

If you’re holding assets, the positive price action in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin is a good sign. However, reduced exchange volumes, like Binance’s 66.27% volume drop, could mean large trades face less depth in the order book, potentially leading to greater price impact. News about Ethereum ETFs outperforming Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 inflows suggests a shift in institutional interest, which could influence portfolio diversification.

XRP ETFs are underwater despite significant inflows, a reminder that not all crypto investment vehicles perform equally. Japan’s sanctions on Garantex also highlight increasing regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical risks for parts of the crypto ecosystem.

What next?

Over the next 8 hours, market participants should closely watch trading volumes across major exchanges. The significant volume declines seen on October 4th, like Coinbase’s 68.43% drop, could persist or reverse. A continued lack of volume might push Bitcoin’s price volatility higher, even after its 2.25% gain on October 4th, as fewer trades could have a larger impact.

Keep an eye on the Fear and Greed Index. While it’s in ‘Greed’ territory (65-70pt), any sharp drops could signal a shift in short-term sentiment. A sudden decrease in the index might precede a price correction, even after recent gains. Bitcoin’s mining difficulty holding steady at 132.72T is a positive sign for network health, but any notable changes in hash rate, which fell 5.00% on October 4th, could point to shifts in miner behavior.

Specific news on ETF flows, especially for Ethereum and Bitcoin, will also matter. Continued strong inflows into Ethereum ETFs, as reported for 2026, could sustain its price momentum. Any further negative news on XRP ETFs might worsen its underperformance. Watch for updates on regulatory actions or geopolitical events that could impact specific exchanges or assets, similar to Japan’s sanctions on Garantex.

Disclaimer – Informational Content, Not Investment Advice

Content provided herein is solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as a recommendation, endorsement, or suggestion to engage in any form of investment activity. The information presented in this post is not intended to serve as financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.

About the Author: CryptoTrends Team

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